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New Planned Route For Mumbai-Delhi Expressway To Save Rs 16,000 Crore In Land Acquisition Costs, Says Nitin Gadkari

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The new route being planned for the Mumbai-Delhi Expressway is expected to save Rs 16,000 crore in the form of land acquisition costs, Union Minister for Road Transport & Highways Nitin Gadkari said on Friday (14 September), IANS reported.

Besides saving costs, the 12-lane expressway is also expected to reduce the total distance by 120 km and connect remote parts of the country, which would provide a boost to their economies. The earlier route design also included Surat and Vadodara as part of the expressway.

“We are planning a new alignment for Delhi-Mumbai express highway from Gurgaon to Jaipur ring road to Sawai Madhopur (Rajasthan) to Ratlam (MP) to Vadodara. It is from backward areas of Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra. That is the reason our land acquisition cost is reduced from Rs 7 crore to Rs 80 lakh per hectare. We saved Rs 16,000 crore in land acquisition in this project,” said Gadkari.

The Union Minister was speaking at a meet called, “Public Affairs: The New Paradigm” via video conference.

Amidst concerns over growing migration from rural to urban areas Gadkari said that his government has given the highest priority to rural development which includes providing quality education, employment opportunities and clean drinking water.

Thanks To Modi-Yogi Synchrony, Jewar Airport In Noida To Soon See The Light Of Day

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The Jewar International Airport in Noida will soon become a reality. This is because farmers have begun willingly parting with their lands as the Union Civil Aviation ministry has finally given the project in-principle approval.

So far, as many as 2,335 farmers have decided to part with 916 hectares of land for the proposed greenfield airport, thus meeting 75 per cent of the land requirements of the project. The in-principle approval for the airport was issued within a few months of the Yogi Adityanath government assuming office in Uttar Pradesh.

The project had been pending clearance with the Central government for over 10 years due to a lack of initiative from the Congress-led UPA government and the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led SP government as well as the BSP government headed by Mayawati in the state.

The total land required for the project is 1,334 hectares of which 116 hectares is government land. The administration needs to have the consent of at least 70 per cent farmers before it can start acquisition according to the Land Acquisition and Rehabilitation and Resettlement (LARR) Act, 2013.

The major issue faced by the administration in acquiring the land was that the state government had earlier altered the land’s nomenclature from rural to urban, thereby halving the compensation the farmers would have received. The administration finally got over the issue by promising the farmers jobs at the new airport and equivalently priced plots.

The airport at Jewar is to be built at an estimated cost of Rs 15,754 crore.

A social impact assessment report on the project states that around 33.9 per cent of farmers own land less than 0.6 acres in size, while 39.6 per cent farmers own land measuring between 0.6 to 6 acres, 15.7 per cent farmers own land between 6 to 12 acres and only 5.1 per cent of farmers own between 12.5 and 18.7 acres of land in the area.

At 30 Gigawatt, India To Equal China In Offshore Wind Power Capacity By 2030, Say Estimates

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Estimates by the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis (IEEFA) have projected a dramatic increase in India’s offshore wind generation capacity with capacity seen rising to 30 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. It is further estimated that India would account for 30 per cent of the total offshore wind capacity in Asia and equal China’s capacity.

Currently, India has a target of 5GW installed capacity by 2022 and the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) recently floated an Expression of Interest (EOI) for the purposes of developing 1GW offshore wind project off the western coast. The EOI attracted attention from reputed players in the domestic and international space and it is expected that with further development of offshore capacities, the cost efficiencies would rival those of onshore projects.

The report has also highlighted the promise that offshore wind generation plants pose with respect to replacing polluting thermal power. The report observes that if Asian economies meet their cumulative target of 100GW of offshore wind power, then an estimated 300-350 million tonnes of coal could be replaced with an estimated 55 per cent utilisation rate for these plants.

India is expected to be a pioneer in the coming days in generation of offshore wind power, with the same expected to boost the country’s efforts at generating clean power.

India And Japan Ink Rs 7,000 Crore Deal For 18 Bullet Trains Including Transfer Of Technology Agreement

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India will buy 18 bullet trains at a cost of Rs 7,000 crore in a deal that includes technology transfer, Economic Times has reported. The news comes at a time when the country’s first bullet train project between Mumbai and Ahmedabad is making steady progress.

‘We’ll be getting 18 Shinkansen train sets from Japan. Each train will have ten coaches and would be able to cruise at the speed of 350 km per hour,” an official who was aware of the deal told ET. Japanese manufacturers will be participating in a tender to supply the trains.

The Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail (MAHSR) Corridor is being built through the public-private partnership (PPP) route. Japanese companies Kawasaki and Hitachi will be setting up facilities in India as part of the project. “We’ll be inviting bids to set up an assembling plant here in India as well under the Make in India programme,” the official told Economic Times.

The National High-Speed Rail Corporation Limited (NHSRCL) has chosen the stretch between Billimora and Surat of Ahmedabad Mumbai high-speed rail corridor to operationalise the first stretch of the bullet train. Personnel from India will be trained to handle the project starting from February 2019 in Vadodara.

Road Infrastructure Development In India: A Report Card

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India’s roads carry over 85 per cent of the passenger traffic and 60 per cent of the goods, contributing 4.7 per cent to India’s GDP. That’s the value of the country’s road network – and that is why road infrastructure development is critical.

Watch the video to know what kind of progress we’ve been making over the years.

Maharashtra Samruddhi Corridor: First Letter Of Award Granted To Reliance Infrastructure For Rs 1,907 Crore Package

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Work on the first package for the Rs 46,000 crore Mumbai-Nagpur Maharashtra Samruddhi Mahamarg connecting Maharashtra’s capital Mumbai and winter capital Nagpur is set to start soon, reports IANS.

Package 7, named the Buldhana West package involves design, engineering, procurement and construction of 51 km of six lane expressway between Bade and Sawargaon Mal villages in the Buldhana district. Last year, Anil Ambani-led Reliance Infrastructure emerged as the lowest bidder for the package.

The Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC), the nodal agency to implement the 701 km expressway today (31 August) handed over the letter of award (LoA) to Reliance Infra.

Apart from this, Reliance Infra is also working on the construction of a metro line in Mumbai and the Versova-Bandra Sea Link.

Also Read: The Economics Of Mumbai-Nagpur Expressway

Madras HC Sets Bad Precedent On VIP Culture By Demanding Separate Lane For Judges At Toll Nakas

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Judges cannot claim exemptions from the ordinary law whenever it suits them, and this includes payment of tolls at highways.

The Madras High Court is setting the wrong precedent by demanding special lanes for judges at toll nakas.

Try as one might, the demand for VIP treatment never seems to ebb in status-conscious India.

The latest to join the queue for special status are Madras High Court judges, who have demanded a special lane for themselves and other VIPs at highway toll booths. A two-judge bench comprising justices Huluvadi Ramesh and M V Muralidharan has threatened the relevant authorities with contempt of court if they are not given separate lanes.

Their lordships were apparently incensed at having to wait in long queues at toll plazas, and forced to produce identity documents to prove they were judges, making them mere mortals using these highways. The bench has asked toll operators and the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) to take “serious note” of the need to “provide separate lanes for vehicles of VIPs, including sitting judges.” It warned that “any violation of the order by NHAI will be viewed seriously.”

The order speaks volumes for the sense of entitlement judges feel about not being put in the same lane as ordinary citizens. Sadly, this attitude will do nothing to reign in the VIP culture that is the bane of our democratic republic.

It was not a very long time ago that the Supreme Court tried to roll back VIP culture. A bench headed by Justice R M Lodha (since retired) railed against the use of red beacons by vehicles of “high dignitaries”. The bench asked: “from where did we get this culture? Every office holder in a republic is supposed to serve the people. Then how some are high dignitaries and constitutional functionaries? Such usages are an anathema to the notion of a republic. Is it necessary to use expressions like high and low?”

But, clearly, the message is not getting through even to the judiciary, leave alone political and bureaucratic bigwigs. One can hardly blame other VIPs from developing a sense of entitlement in public spaces when judges are going to demand special lanes at toll plazas, among other things.

To be sure, one wonders why high court judges even need to be exempted from toll payments, when the payments can well be reimbursed by the state whenever they travel on official work. Moreover, if the idea is to give them a free pass, why can’t all high court judges be given a permanent Fastag, where all payments are done centrally, and no individual judge is forced to prove he is a judge by flashing some form of identity document.

Also, one wonders whether by demanding a special lane the judges will not be inconveniencing others. Given the limited width of most highways, keeping separate lanes for VIPs and judges means either these lanes will be underused, or other cars will anyway use them when they are free, creating queues when their lordships arrive.

At a more basic level, one may also ask why judges or VIPs should not be asked to prove their identities when the word “Judge” is not written on their foreheads. How is any toll operator to know that someone is a judge, and travelling on official work? Judges cannot claim exemptions from the ordinary law whenever it suits them, and this includes payment of tolls at highways.

In a country whose constitution promises to strive for liberty, equality and fraternity, judicial officers should be the first ones to show the way by not demanding special treatment. We already have a long list of VIPs who will not be frisked at airports, including High Court Chief Justices, but not other judges. We will now have the same inequality staring at us at toll nakas too.

The Madras High Court is setting the wrong precedent by demanding special lanes for judges at toll nakas.

Jagannathan is Editorial Director, Swarajya. He tweets at @TheJaggi.

Yes, Roll-Out Of Smart Cities Mission Is Delayed, But That Is The Nature Of The Beast

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Snapshot
  • With a mission that has disparate projects, it can take up to eternity to achieve all objectives. How has accountability been built in is the question.

    However grand our planning may be, it is not the central government but the local municipal body that will have to help push the mission through.

Judging the progress of the Smart Cities Mission (SCM) is a bit like deciding whether the glass is half empty or half full. It may also depend on your proclivity toward the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government at the centre, or even be decided by what agenda you are pursuing. Most news reports on the progress of India’s smart cities will tell you how tardy the implementation is – and somehow, it is the fault of the central government. Bureaucrats in charge and the Union Minister of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA) insist critics must visit the cities to see just how much is happening on the ground.

Reports on the subject by international consultants like McKinsey and Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC) paint differing pictures, and there are organisations that point out how human rights violations are innate to this mission.

Objective judging on the basis of numbers is difficult, as most reports have non-comparable parameters. To make things worse, the government website, though helpful in parts, has many pages that were updated only till the early months of 2017. In short, no one knows what exactly is happening on the Smart Cities front.

As per the SCM dashboard of the Government of India and figures taken from an interview of the Secretary, Urban Development, in 2017, these are the current statistical highlights:

There are no details on progress city-wise, or on how the programme was envisioned to be implemented.

A Mission Needs To Be Smart All The Way

An absolute must-have for a mission of this variety and magnitude – with 100 cities across states that are diverse in every way, with the freedom to decide their own priorities and projects – is smart tracking.

That would begin with smart and well-thought-out parameters on the Smart Cities Mission website. This would serve the purpose of being hard-hitting reminders to states and cities, of ‘naming and shaming’, and thus, actually increase healthy competition. The page that has ‘City-wise projects’, for instance, can further have a timeline against all projects, and a requirement of ticking boxes by states. Perhaps, a kind of an ‘SCM progress index’ can also be made.

A 2017 report by Deloitte, which tied together the company’s client cities’ experiences, had, in the case of India, placed the onus on the monitoring of the central government, as it said: “The Smart Cities Mission finds itself at a crossroads today. The government structure, financing, participant cities, and smart city projects are all in place. However, the success of the programme will hinge on how cities and the Government of India are able to track and monitor progress. This is where the Central Mission Management Agency (MMA) under the MHoUA plays a role.”

In theory, the MMA is supposed to monitor progress of all participant cities, keep track of the appointed project management consultants (PMCs) in each city, provide knowledge-sharing on best practices, and help resolve specific implementation challenges. It is also supposed to track progress against the projects clubbed under area-based (ABD) projects as well as pan-city initiatives – as well as suggest course correction.

An active MMA is indispensable if the government does want to make a success of this Smart Cities Mission, as it would be able to go past the regular constraints that have in the past slowed the progress of urban local bodies (ULBs), the municipal authorities, the compulsions involving the construction sector and politicians, and so on.

When the centre is providing funds, it must exercise its authority in monitoring their utilisation. This becomes all the more important as the projects are diverse and the agencies involved working at varying levels of efficiency. There are also, of course, the regular legacies of municipal bodies – delays, malfunction, quality issues, corruption, and political interference.

Status on Projects in Lighthouse Smart Cities

Eight months ago, a report by PWC was released which studied, for the American Chamber of Commerce in India, the status on Lighthouse Smart Cities. The data is not exactly the latest, but a close analysis serves to adequately demonstrate the lack of homogeneity in data available across cities and, perhaps, also the responses of the ULBs: the blanks in the table below confirm this; for instance, only Chennai and Ludhiana had entries in the “DPR approved” category.

The figures also don’t add up. Of the total number of projects, only those under seven solution areas (mobility and transport being one, safety and security being another, and so on) were chosen for the study. So, for instance, though Jabalpur has a total of 101 projects, we have status updates on only 12 projects. Thus, ironically, a report on “status” of the cities turns out to be insufficient to judge progress. What one can make out is that work is happening; but the rate and proportion of progress is not quantified – or possibly not sought to be revealed by the city.

From the government website, in trying to see what the status of special purpose vehicles (SPVs) were, and whether all cities had got their PMCs in place, we did come across the list of shortlisted consulting firms for each region. However, city-wise, which PMC was finally selected, and helping with what, is not known.

The case would have been different if the mission to create smart cities – along the lines of International Smart Cities – was done from scratch. Dholera in Gujarat is an example of a greenfield city, an industrial township that will accommodate workers, and is being set up as an area that would deliver all services efficiently, with carefully designed neighbourhoods, social infrastructure, green transport, and mobility. Dholera is expected to, as per news reports, achieve completion by 2019.

But, otherwise, most smart cities are not classic smart cities in that sense. Indian smart cities are mostly about renewal and ‘retrofitting’, with projects that make them citizen-friendly and sustainable. There are different kinds of projects across smart cities, some are termed ‘area-based development’, where areas are re-developed, and this includes slums. The other category is pan-city initiatives that use smart solutions for delivery of infrastructure and services, which could include city surveillance, smart parking, citizen engagement platforms, and intelligent traffic management systems.

With a mission that has disparate projects, it can take up to eternity to achieve all objectives. How has accountability been built in is the question. With private sector assistance and international funding being sought for implementation, it is imperative that the programme not fall into the usual rut of time – and hence, cost escalations. Especially, given that the helming body is the SPV, which cannot extricate itself from the efficiency of the municipal authority.

The need for this is especially critical, given the rapid pace at which populations are moving to cities. Smart solutions are needed to not only improve quality of life and be sustainable and inclusive in the long run, but also generate employment and income enhancement for all.

Some More Perspective on the Delays

Then, let us remember the agencies that are primarily responsible for the execution are the same municipal bodies that we have known all along. After the acceptance of proposals of a city by the central government, then begins the task of implementation of the projects that were proposed. This implementation is the job of a specially created company SPV, an incorporated entity with stakes held by and funding coming from the local municipal authority, the state government and the centre. The SPV is supposed to then get down to the business of making those proposed projects a reality. For this, it hires PMCs for the design and development and then getting the jobs of construction, operation, etc, done.

The central government itself does not have a role to play in the actual implementation of the process, apart from regular monitoring, fund release, and other formalities. Yes, the target-setting may have been faulty, which underestimated the time that would be needed – probably for want of complete inputs, and without adequately visualising the entire process. Thus, the finances were expected to begin flowing in 2017, and cities beginning to take shape in 2022.

Experts say that cities globally have taken around 15 years to progress to smart cities. And here, we are talking about slow-paced, idyllic towns like Jabalpur or Shillong; or crowded, noisy lanes of, say, Gwalior or Amritsar. Can the process of converting parts of these into swanky oases, with buildings of steel and glass, and everything from transport to security to water supply to healthcare to be run on integrated communication technology (ICT), and also be integrated by it, be anything but a long process?

Apart from the fact that this is a new realm we’re venturing into, even the tendering process is time-consuming and complex in the case of smart cities. Additional secretary in-charge of the Smart Cities programme, Sameer Sharma, told a newspaper sometime back that the normal tendering – where the lowest bidder is awarded the project – could not be followed, because the lowest bidder might not have the requisite expertise to carry out a smart-city project.

The Funding

Since work is still underway, obviously fund utilisation would also proceed accordingly.

report on the financing of smart cities on the official website, however, raises some important points on financing. We know that financing was to come from first the central government and then the following:

a) the state/ULB’s own funds, from user charges, fees, land monetisation, etc

b) National Investment and Infrastructure Fund

c) Private-sector investments through public-private partnerships (PPPs)

d) Borrowings from bilateral and multilateral institutions and other domestic and international sources

e) Municipal bonds

f) Other central government schemes such as Swachh Bharat Mission, AMRUT, HRIDAY, etc

Now, central government funding is in order. The status of funds released by the Government of India under the Smart Cities Mission is given here.

But the remaining funds still remain a question mark. The report referenced above, prepared by Kumar V Pratap, Economic Advisor in the MoHUA, indicates some problems that are likely to arise. For instance, how user charges in India are way below cost recovery in urban infrastructure.

Just to give an idea, average cost recovery of selected ULBs in 2007-08 was as follows:

Thus, at these levels, user charges would be abysmally insufficient in financing cities’ projects. For them to make meaningful contribution, the politically sensitive decision to increase them is needed. Then, within user charges, parking fees has the potential to be a big contributor. But again, current parking fee rates in Indian cities are very low – at roughly 20 per cent of those prevalent in Dubai, 4 per cent of those in Hong Kong, and at 3 per cent of New York rates.

The recommendations in the study were to increase these to at least cover operation and maintenance costs, and also link them to usage (rather than levy as taxes) and index them to inflation. Importantly, they need to be linked to quality of service, said the report.

Coming to PPPs. The report also talks about why PPP models often fail in urban infrastructure – because of inadequate cost recovery. Political sensitivity is a big issue. Add to that the issue of operating in cities with poor infrastructure – broken roads, poor telecom signals, to name a few; why would private players want to enter at all?

Municipal bonds, the other panacea, didn’t take off because of the low credit ratings that cities received owing again to financial viability. This is the classic chicken-and-egg situation, and obviously one that requires a different set of solutions. There were also issues getting tax-free status for the bonds; finally, only two cities have been able to go ahead with issuing bonds – Pune and Hyderabad.

What, then, is the solution? The central government, on its part, tried yet another ploy last month when it announced a new challenge – Cities Investment To Innovate, Integrate and Sustain (CITIIS) – to identify top projects in 15 of the 100 selected smart cities, which will then receive an additional funding of approximately Rs 80 crore each. This would be financed by a 100 million euro loan from a French international development agency.

It must be recalled that external aid, from Asian Development Bank, World Bank, and so on, though available, comes at a very high cost, and with their set of conditionalities.

Finding Alternative Funding Solutions

Could a possible solution be one involving the local private sector in smart cities through the corporate social responsibility (CSR) route? CSR initiatives in the country are currently stand-alone projects. Going into details of how this could be done is beyond the scope of this article; but, roughly, could the SPVs in cities become nodal agencies for CSR initiatives? This would make sure that that their mandatory 2 per cent amount is used for coherent and serious purposes, especially if tied together meaningfully for the smart cities projects. This also has the potential to enhance accountability of SPVs.

Self-Financing: The Case of the Sabarmati Riverfront in Ahmedabad.

This one project – an area-based development project – has multiple objectives of reduction in erosion and floods, sewage diversion, rehabilitation of riverbed dwellers, creation of parks and public spaces, and revitalisation of neighbourhoods. As per the project website, this revitalisation of neighbourhoods is done by gradual upgrading of the reclaimed lands – and this is about “promoting integrated, high-density growth, with a focus on walkability and public transportation.” All buzzwords in the smart cities discourse prevalent today.

The best feature of the projects is its self-financing aspect. It achieves its goals without relying on any funding from the government. A small portion of the reclaimed land will be sold for commercial development, to generate sufficient enough resources to pay for developing and managing the riverfront.

The project needs to be a must-study for all cities in India, especially given that most cities have rivers.

Meanwhile, if indeed the progress on SCM is slow, it could be a blessing: a time for cities to sit back and reflect once again. For instance, from what’s now trending, have cities included ICT-backed projects for disaster management – floods, earthquakes, fires? And even disease prevention for dengue, malaria, and the like?

It could be that more pressing requirements have been overlooked, which are different from those of international aspiring smart cities. The solutions would accordingly be different. It’s we the people who need to smarten up first, and adopt a need-based, thought-through, organic approach to the process of developing our cities, rather than a mere projects-based approach.

The Great North Indian Plains And Economic Convergence – Renewable Energy And Fast Data

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Snapshot
  • Crude consumption is likely to be one of India’s biggest challenges in the future. How we adopt newer technology is a matter for serious consideration.

The first of the two-part article focussed on India continuing to gradually converge with what the industrialised countries already have – good infrastructure, especially railways and roads, and how that, among other reasons, should also lead to lower regional inequality over time.

In the second part, I would like to focus on technology – the latest of which we are absorbing along with the industrialised world, instead of substantially after them, and hence leapfrogging previous iterations of technology where applicable. Hence, this will take effect over a time frame slightly longer than five to seven years. So, let us jump into the ongoing – and accelerating – data and energy revolutions, and focus more specifically on:

(1) The solar, storage and self-driving car revolutions, and

(2) The 5G, Augmented Reality and Offshoring 4.0 revolutions

Let us first understand the importance of energy for growth. Primitive humans used their own energy to produce “stuff” and they in turn got most of their energy by eating other species. Some thousands of years ago, we started to “domesticate” other species. We also started to discover inanimate objects – minerals of all sorts, and then long dead organisms in the form of coal, and that, along with the earlier basic harnessing of wood, winds, and water got us to the modern age.

Coal had started the first industrial revolution, oil the second one, computers the third, and now we are on the fourth one going by the currently in-vogue nomenclature. Along the way, we added nuclear and gas to the list as well. In the last 40-45 years, the global production mix has changed a bit but the overwhelming reliance on fossil fuel remains (picture below from IEA 2017 Key World Energy Statistics). During this time, the world population increased from around 4 billion to about 7 billion and per capita energy consumption increased by close to 30 per cent with much of the increase coming from emerging economies (CAGR increase of approximately 0.6 per cent)

Now, let us come down to consumption.

We can see that China’s per capita residential consumption is not that much higher than India’s, but its industrial consumption is. US and Indian residential consumption is also similar but then US’ population is about four times lower than that of India. However, the gargantuan difference is in transportation. Indians cannot consume and commute much without more energy. This consumption is not just of electricity but total energy usage (hence, includes directly used oil, gas and in our rural case, especially, bio-fuels and waste – though this is changing) Moreover, if Indians beyond the small upper middle class start driving cars like the Chinese do, much less the Americans, then crude could rise sharply if the change happens relatively quickly.

We will need a variety of public policy responses; for example, think of bio-diesel and ethanol – on one hand we have agricultural overproduction, on the other hand we have high crude imports. The right steps are again being taken but tinkering will not be enough; new technologies must flourish and must so be nurtured. India has taken the right steps of late – for solar especially (below from Wikipedia/Central Electricity Authority)

Now, 22 GW is around 15 per cent of India’s total installed electricity capacity. But this does not mean that close to 15 per cent of India’s electricity consumption comes from solar. As solar energy is not received in the night and since there is no viable large-scale method to store power, the consumption fraction is lower. Nonetheless, one can take solace from a few factors here:

(1) The overall target of 100 GW by 2022 seems achievable even though it maybe a stretch,
(2) Inter-connecting of the five regional grids in India has been achieved though many UHVDC lines (long distance connections for bulk power transfer) still need to be laid, and
(3) Storage technologies are improving.

While we are much better off than the days of July 2012 (blackouts and power shortages), even more needs to be done. Nowthat village electrification and pre-paid meters are being pushed, we might be on the cusp of 24×7 power for all in the coming decade, including in the relatively poor and dense areas of the Gangetic plains. The implications would be tremendous – white good sales will take off, which in turn could increase female labour force participation rate; people will be able to study and work longer hours, and agricultural productivity could increase. North India would disproportionately benefit given its low base of productivity and infrastructure.

Let Us Move On To Data

5G technology, which is under trial in various parts of the world (including in India), promises up to 100 times faster internet speeds ( around 10 Gbps), and 10-100 times lower latency. That would involve a lot of capital expenditures as 5G would run on higher frequency (smaller wavelengths) and such waves travel or penetrate a shorter distance. However, once we have even a half-functioning 5G infrastructure, along with revolutionary developments in other technologies such as augmented reality (AR) and robots/”cobots”, the understanding of modern economics and trade itself could change.

The next level of outsourcing – think 3D Skype and holograms from sci-fi depictions – would be available for one and all, and we are not too many years away from this. With protectionism on manufactures and visa-tightening on services, this could be the next big boom for India, though we will need to get our act together for manufacturing no matter what (I will cover that in another article). Yes, services exports with no real in situ component, for example a professor teaching at an American university from India, could also face a backlash in the West (and Japan). However, India, unlike China, allows the leading American tech companies to operate in India, and that gives us leverage to negotiate. Moreover, geo-politically too, India is closer to the democratic West and Japan than communist China can be at least in the near term.

All this may sound too-much-pie-in-the-sky, but the economic case is clear. India’s per capita income is around $2,000 and America’s is $60,000. Richard Baldwin has written about this new kind of trade in his book The Great Convergence. My friend, Rajeev Mantri, has perceptively noted that at some point, we could move to a world where services will be more traded (as described above) but goods will be not much more so or perhaps even less so (because of various technologies such as additive manufacturing, etc).

These trends could also have enormous consequences for international/trade macro-economics in another way: currently, we see a Public Private Partnership (PPP) multiplier for incomes greater than 1 (often around 2-4 times) for poorer countries, due to the non-tradeable nature of services. Could we in a few decades, in a world where much more of gross domestic product is tradeable overall, see the gradual disappearance of the Balassa-Samuelson effect? If so, convergence at market exchange rates for poorer countries (and for poor regions with such countries) could be hastened at the margin.

To conclude, more and better rail/road infrastructure, revolutionary changes in our energy infrastructure and finally 10-100 times faster online connectivity could see a very different global economy, of which the Gangetic Valley could perhaps be the biggest beneficiary.

The world would have come a full circle. History, as they say, rhymes if not repeats.

Age Of Solar: After Swachh Bharat, India Needs A Swachh Energy Campaign

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Snapshot
  • In May 2014, India’s solar-generation capacity stood at a mere 2,650 MW. For 2022, the Government of India is targeting 100,000 MW.

In the fight against the rising global temperatures and change in climate patterns, countries must inculcate both short-term and long-term solutions. Investing in nuclear energy, elaborate research and development, and gradual exit from coal-fuelled industries are ideal options for the long-term. However, to get things going in the short term, investments in renewables are warranted.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been vocal about his concerns on climate change. In May 2014, India’s solar-generation capacity (SGC) stood at a mere 2,650 megawatt (MW). Four years later, it totals over 21,000 MW. India’s SGC saw an increase of more than 100 per cent in 2015-16. By January 2018, India had achieved its goal of 20,000 MW four years ahead of the target. As on July 2018, the SGC is more than 23,000 MW. For 2022, the Government of India is targeting 100,000 MW.

At the end of 2017, India’s SGC was a little over 18,000 MW, behind Italy with 19,700 MW, Germany with 42,000 MW, Japan with 49,000 MW, United States with 51,000 MW, and China with 131,000 MW. For India alone, the average price of solar electricity has dropped 18 per cent as compared to that by coal.

India’s geography makes it ideal for solar energy. With more than 300 days of sunlight, there is enough reason for the country to inculcate solar energy. Also, with a nation aiming for a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of more than 8 per cent, a consistent supply of power is essential without relying too much on oil and coal imports.

In the northern region, Rajasthan registered the highest solar power capacity with more 2,250 MW at the end October 2017. For the same period, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand recorded capacity of 876 MW, 510 MW, and 250 MW respectively. Aided by a favourable climate, the states are now harnessing solar power for their energy needs.

To put things in perspective, Rajasthan’s solar power capacity at 2,250 MW was more than that of Switzerland (1,900 MW), Chile (1,800 MW), South Africa (1,800 MW), twice than that of Austria (1,250 MW) and Israel (1,100 MW).

In the western region, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, aided by a favourable climate, have registered a solar power capacity of 1,290 MW and 1,140 MW, followed by Maharashtra with 515 MW. In 2017, between March and October, Madhya Pradesh witnessed a 50 per cent increase in its solar power capacity.

However, regarding solar power, the southern region outshines other states. Telangana alone has a capacity of 2,570 MW, followed by Andhra Pradesh with 2,140 MW, Tamil Nadu with 1,710 MW, and Karnataka with 1,500 MW. For 2017 alone, the four states have more capacity than Australia, South Korea, and Spain.

Given the lack of sunlight in the north-eastern regions of India, solar capacity remains low here, with Assam leading with 12 MW. For Meghalaya, the capacity is only 0.06 MW.

The numbers show further enhancement from October 2017 to June 2018. Karnataka, India’s leading solar state is set to have over 5,000 MW in terms of installed solar capacity. Rajasthan’s capacity increased to 2,290 MW by the end of June 2018.

For a nation constrained by power cuts seven decades after its independence, renewables offer an ideal solution. By the end of 2012, over 4,600,000 solar lanterns and close to 1,000,000 solar-powered home lights had been installed. By 2022, the government aims to sell 20 million solar lights, offering a subsidy of 40 per cent.

India intends to go big on solar energy, and rightfully so. Already, more than 60 solar radiation resource assessment stations have been installed to evaluate India’s potential. Given that the government aims to have 100,000 MW capacity by 2022 alone, it would be ideal to harness energy from areas favoured by constant sunlight across the year. Most of these stations, thus, have been set up in Rajasthan, Gujarat, and parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

The solar story goes beyond numbers, however. India, in its pursuit of 100,000 MW solar generation capacity will be faced with many challenges. Firstly, India’s weak electrical grids, distribution losses, and the monetary burden operators find themselves under adds to the strain. Two, to harness solar energy, India must invest heavily towards efficient storage of energy. While research on batteries has lowered the cost of storage, increased the transportation feasibility, and enhanced life, there is a lot that must be done to ensure effective implementation of solar energy on a national level.

The world today is at a tipping point when it comes to climate change. While developed and developing nations can keep arguing about who should do more to combat climate change and which government has the right to continue with its use of fossil fuels, the consequences do not look at the size of an economy before wrecking havoc. Thus, irrespective of where the origins of global warming were, it is in the betterment of nations like India to invest in renewables like solar energy.

So, how does India go about the challenges? Firstly, the authorities must look beyond the grid. Coal, in the long-term, cannot serve as an excuse to get power to rural India. Instead, research must be undertaken to developed localised grids to ensure minimum losses and maximum gains. If 400-million people in rural India can be helped with affordable options in solar energy, they shall have enough incentive to discard the use of kerosene, coal, and even wood for their energy needs.

Second, people in the urban regions must be made active participants of this movement. Given how housing societies and corporations form a core of the residential areas in cities like Bengaluru, Pune, Chandigarh, Noida, Gurgaon, and Mumbai, state governments should pursue them to inculcate solar energy options. With some of these private groups housing more than a thousand families, a significant change could be witnessed in a few years.

Three, if the government finds it hard to pursue civilians, how about starting with government buildings and residential areas housing government employees or civil servants? For a nation that still struggles to look beyond the conventional means of generating electricity, the government may have to do some heavy lifting in terms of setting an example. After Swachh Bharat, perhaps, it is time for Swachh Energy.

There is always the question of China when it is about renewable energy. Given the country is trying to recreate an export-driven economy based on renewables, the solar industry is highly subsidised. Thus, there is an excess production of solar cells, panels, batteries and other essential components, leaving the local manufacturers distraught.

India can tackle this problem in two ways. One, it imposes harsh tariffs like the US has or two, invests heavily in research, and ensure gradual phasing out of Chinese solar products from the Indian market. While the investments in research and development may take a few years before yielding any results, India’s pursuit of clean energy in the solar realm should not suffer for lack of innovation on the domestic front.

From agriculture to electrifying rural India, and from urban cities reeling under power cuts to moving towards a Swachh Energy Bharat, there is enough incentive for India to inculcate solar energy as a short-term solution against climate change. Already, the foundation for International Solar Alliance has served as the ideal start. However, India will have to take giant strides across the 2020s across renewables and clean energy options, along with exploring the nuclear option for the long-term. By the end of the 2020s, the question should not be of helping 1.4 billion people with electricity, but clean electricity.

In the age of solar, more than numbers, India should look at an energy transformation that is too significant to be measured in numbers alone. With a target of generating 100 GW of solar energy, the focus should be on offering 1,000 million people clean energy options to power their houses – an accomplishment worthy of a celebration.